Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.974502 2.069714 2.170817 2.286862 2.417273 2.560407 2.730960
2025-07-13 1.882980 2.009045 2.148408 2.315892 2.514571 2.746704 3.044926
2025-07-20 1.835620 1.985964 2.157621 2.372016 2.638759 2.969202 3.427245
2025-07-27 1.771330 1.935440 2.127230 2.373759 2.692069 3.105778 3.718886
2025-08-03 1.718666 1.893471 2.101829 2.376434 2.743026 3.241497 4.031525
2025-08-10 1.645839 1.822214 2.034960 2.319698 2.707920 3.251655 4.154412
2025-08-17 1.600490 1.781786 2.003407 2.305284 2.727125 3.339362 4.417400
2025-08-24 1.561190 1.746565 1.975903 2.293332 2.747198 3.428905 4.703398
2025-08-31 1.526904 1.715815 1.952099 2.284037 2.769077 3.522475 5.021254
2025-09-07 1.505011 1.699548 1.945852 2.297732 2.825004 3.677588 5.514023
2025-09-14 1.455423 1.645863 1.887824 2.235192 2.759576 3.617849 5.513796
2025-09-21 1.430591 1.623279 1.870183 2.228896 2.780421 3.711190 5.908543
2025-09-28 1.392437 1.583093 1.828603 2.187795 2.746111 3.706080 6.070990
2025-10-05 1.381657 1.578206 1.834310 2.215405 2.823906 3.920944 6.957938
2025-10-12 1.379817 1.584823 1.855720 2.267175 2.946502 4.249626 8.548292
2025-10-19 1.361614 1.568860 1.844938 2.269324 2.984205 4.410093 9.753185
2025-10-26 1.344738 1.554073 1.835097 2.272124 3.022993 4.581552 11.358652
2025-11-02 1.311801 1.516655 1.791966 2.220820 2.959758 4.502617 11.374101
2025-11-09 1.292337 1.497094 1.773678 2.207852 2.966047 4.594107 12.788858
2025-11-16 1.274525 1.479307 1.757312 2.197064 2.975381 4.695554 14.691575
2025-11-23 1.258293 1.463262 1.742908 2.188657 2.988417 4.809971 17.430867
2025-11-30 1.249043 1.456514 1.741618 2.201179 3.042560 5.049600 24.840112
2025-12-07 1.220091 1.421918 1.698842 2.144147 2.955881 4.872656 22.159758